15 Oct Australia v England: Aussie pacemen could make the difference
Having survived a massive qualification scare, the host state’s dream of winning their first World Cup remains very much alive. To sustain it and reach their first final since 1992, England will need to conquer their oldest rival and, in doing so, reverse a hefty defeat earlier in the championship.
Aussies have dispelled doubts and defied pundits
In keeping 50-over cricket in general, the formbook has stood up well. Very few pundits doubted England, India and Australia would get to the semis, while New Zealand were a favorite option.
1 aspect which most people to some degree the gambling got incorrect, nevertheless, was underestimating the Aussies. Maybe they’re still only third greatest however, the difference is apparently narrower than five weeks ago.
The doubts were of course legitimate. Nobody knew how they’d react to each of the controversy and upheaval regarding David Warner and Steve Smith’s return to international cricket. Nor whether Mitchell Starc would be the same force as in 2015. After 932 runs from the former group, also 26 wickets from the latter, we can safely say they delivered outside the most optimistic expectations.
Defeat to South Africa in Saturday’s dead rubber maybe take some of the glow off but I would not read anything to it. The Aussies have won 15 of their last 17 games and, before the World Cup, eight to the bounce came from India and Pakistan.
England’s response to crisis was superb
As for England, their wobble not just livened up the tournament but possibly brought an overdue sense of realism. Yes, they have been the best ODI facet of recent years however as Sri Lanka demonstrated, nothing can be taken for granted at this elite level.
England have been outstanding in both latest must-win matches, doing what they do best – compiling unattainable totals. In defeating India and fellow semi-finalists New Zealand, their pedigree has been re-affirmed.
Aussie bowlers could provide the key advantage
Nevertheless, I must question their status as clear favourites here. There was nothing flukey regarding Australia’s 64-run success over them in the group. For all their batting power and depth, England could not handle Starc and Jason Behrendorff – let alone hit them from the park.For my cash, the rule to follow in elite level cricket would be that bowlers win games. Only by controlling the scoring speed and take wickets throughout the middle overs, can totals be included.
Bowling isn’t England’s strength however, to be honest, they’ve delivered. Jofra Archer and Mark Wood possess 33 wickets united, while Chris Woakes has also been excellent and unlucky on event.
Nevertheless I speed the Aussie pace trio as a superior combination and Starc is honestly unplayable sometimes. Given that their batsmen have also performed, together with the top order flourishing, patriotic concerns must be placed aside. 2.28 about such an in-form outfit, boasting a vast advantage concerning managing stress in previous World Cups, must be the wager.
300 looks a winning total at Edgbaston
Pre-tournament, Edgbaston was on my list of grounds accountable to yield very substantial totals. With a firm pitch, 400 will be possible but that this surface was low and slow.
The first two totals were 241 and 237 – both of which proved competitive if not quite enough. Ever since, England won 337 and India with 315. Both dents looked and proved comfortably above par.
If 300 or more begins at odds-on within our 1st Innings Runs market, I’ll be laying it, and also a ring around the 270 mark will probably be worth opposing at 1.30 or less.
So much as Top Australian Batsman is concerned, it’s really hard to argue for anyone beyond the top order. Warner and Aaron Finch have amassed 1145 runs and are perfectly reasonably worth to top-score again in 11/4 and 10/3 respectively.